Food Shock Scenarios

Organized by Global Catastrophic Risks Institute GCRI

It’s August, 2018, 8 months into the worst, most sudden and least predicted food crisis in living memory. Futures prices of all three major staples are affected and the extreme impact means that the Rapid Response Forum is not working as intended. 

Leaders from 5 continents have formed a Food-system Recovery Acceleration under chair President Trump and Executive Director Hugh Grant MBA (not the actor!)

Your organisation has been told to expect to be asked to form part of an all-continents task force to produce plans to rapidly increase food production, availability and distributions by all possible means.

Your budget will be lean, not lavish, because of the large quantities required. Most affected countries and populations have access to cooking fuel, but may initially resist unfamiliar food items, especially where rice/wheat are staples.

There may be one additional black swan challenge to contend with in the coming weeks.

La Nina did not proceed in the way expected, with turbulent and chaotic shifts. Farmers worldwide have not known when to sow, and many have staggered sowing. Rice stocks in India were low at end of season 2016, worse in 2017 and are threatened further. Brazil, Central America and Africa are in turmoil. Futures markets alternate between being in turmoil and suspended. A black market / piracy for food has been observed. Wheat harvest data for Europe, Russia, Ukraine and North America to follow.